The Daily Dig
ABC's Construction Backlog Indicator came in at 8.8 months in April, hitting a 10-month high. The reading is up 0.2 months from March and 0.1 months from a year ago. ABC's survey was conducted between April 20 and May 4.
The headline number masks a sharp divide. Contractors with more than $100 million in annual revenues saw backlog surge, now sitting 2.2 months above where it stood in April 2025. Every other revenue category has smaller backlog than it did one year ago.
The major driver appears to be data center construction. Forty-two percent of contractors above the $100 million threshold are currently under contract on data center projects, compared to just 7% among smaller contractors. The backlog difference between those working on data centers (12.2 months) and those who are not (8.3 months) is nearly four months.
Despite the uneven workload picture, confidence held across all contractor sizes. ABC's Construction Confidence Index for sales, profit margins, and staffing all moved higher in April and remain above 50, the threshold that signals expected growth over the next six months.
Just 1 in 5 contractors expect their profit margins to shrink over the next six months, the lowest that share has been since January 2025. ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu noted that weak construction spending data, rising oil prices, and emerging materials price escalation have not diminished member confidence.
Snapshot:
Report: ABC Construction Backlog Indicator and Construction Confidence Index, April
Survey Period: April 20 to May 4
Backlog Reading: 8.8 months
Month-Over-Month Change: +0.2 months
Year-Over-Year Change: +0.1 months
Backlog Status: 10-month high
Large Contractor Backlog YOY Change: +2.2 months (contractors above $100M annual revenue)
All Other Contractor Categories: Below year-ago backlog levels
Data Center Penetration, Large Contractors (above $100M): 42% under contract on data center projects
Data Center Penetration, Smaller Contractors (below $100M): 7%
Backlog, Contractors on Data Center Work: 12.2 months
Backlog, Contractors Not on Data Center Work: 8.3 months
Confidence Index Components: Sales, profit margins, staffing, all above 50
Contractors Expecting Margin Contraction Next 6 Months: 1 in 5 (lowest since January 2025)
Source: Associated Builders and Contractors
TheJobWalk Thoughts
The nearly four-month backlog gap between contractors on data center work and those who are not is the real story inside this report. With 42% of large contractors already locked into these projects and only 7% of smaller firms in the same position, the concentration of that work is striking.
GCs and subs not already in the data center pipeline should be taking a hard look at whether they have a realistic path to get there.
Confidence numbers are worth reading carefully here. The CCI measures outlook for the next six months, not current workload. Smaller contractors are carrying less pipeline than they were a year ago, and with data center volume sitting heavily at the top of the market, anyone running a smaller book of business should be stress-testing where their next backlog is coming from.
Courtesy of ABC
