The Daily Dig
ABC's Construction Backlog Indicator climbed to 9.1 months in May, up 0.3 months from April and 0.7 months from May 2025. According to ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu, the reading marks a nearly three-year high. The data comes from an ABC member survey conducted May 20 through June 3.
Backlog increased in every region except the South. Despite that monthly dip, the South still holds the longest regional backlog and has posted the largest year-over-year increase of any region.
The data center build-out is doing a lot of the heavy lifting behind the headline number. Basu noted that 14% of ABC members currently hold data center contracts, and that group is carrying 11.6 months of backlog. Members without data center work are at 8.6 months. That three-month gap shows clearly where the growth is concentrated.
ABC's Construction Confidence Index fell across all three components in May: sales, profit margins, and staffing levels. All three remain above 50, indicating that contractors still expect growth over the next six months. Basu connected the confidence dip to the data center dynamic directly, noting that the boom is disproportionately benefiting larger contractors, which helps explain why sentiment slipped even as the overall backlog number moved higher.
Snapshot:
Report: ABC Construction Backlog Indicator and Construction Confidence Index, May
Survey Period: May 20 through June 3
CBI Reading (May): 9.1 months
Change Month over Month: +0.3 months
Change Year over Year: +0.7 months
Backlog Context: Nearly three-year high, per ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu
Regional Movement: Increased in all regions except the South
South Status: Longest regional backlog; largest year-over-year increase
Members with Data Center Contracts: 14% of ABC membership
Data Center Member Backlog: 11.6 months
Non-Data Center Member Backlog: 8.6 months
CCI Components: Sales, profit margins, staffing levels
CCI Direction: All three fell in May; all three remain above 50
TheJobWalk Thoughts
The three-month backlog gap between data center contractors and everyone else is the real story in this report. ABC's data shows members without data center contracts are averaging 8.6 months of backlog. That is a solid number by most measures, but it is a full three months behind the group driving the headline, and contractors should be clear-eyed about which side of that line they are on.
Basu's point about larger contractors disproportionately benefiting from the data center boom is the clearest explanation for why confidence fell while backlog rose. Firms without exposure to that work are likely looking at a more modest pipeline than the top-line CBI suggests, and that gap between the aggregate number and their actual backlog position is exactly where sentiment softens.
The divergence between rising backlog and falling confidence is worth watching over the next few months. If the data center cycle continues concentrating work among a narrower group of contractors, the CCI could keep sliding even as the CBI holds or climbs. That would be a meaningful sign of a market splitting in two.
Courtesy of ABC
