The Daily Dig
The Dodge Momentum Index climbed 1.8% in March to 250.5, but the headline number tells only part of the story.
Commercial planning rose 7.0% on the month while institutional planning dropped 8.8%. Both figures were heavily shaped by what was happening in a single sector: data centers.
Without them, the commercial segment's year-over-year gain of 28.5% flips to a decline of 12.7%. Every other commercial sector slowed. On the institutional side, only education and public buildings showed any meaningful traction.
Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting at Dodge Construction Network, said some of the pullback reflects a natural reset after strong late-2025 numbers. For other sectors, rising macroeconomic uncertainty is likely feeding into owner planning decisions.
The largest projects entering planning in February were concentrated almost entirely in the data center space. Amazon's Data Center Campus in Hamlet, North Carolina logged 17 individual buildings at $500 million each. Microsoft's DSM50 campus in Dallas, Iowa brought in ten buildings at $250 million apiece. The biggest institutional entries were a $245 million outpatient pavilion in San Diego, a $183 million hospital phase in Viera West, Florida, and a $175 million Bachelor Enlisted Quarters renovation at Camp Pendleton North. Despite broad softness across most categories, the DMI sits 25.8% above March 2025.
Snapshot:
Index: Dodge Momentum Index (DMI)
Issuer: Dodge Construction Network
March 2026 Reading: 250.5 (2000=100)
Month-over-Month Change: +1.8%
February Revised Reading: 246.2
Commercial Planning Change (Month): +7.0%
Institutional Planning Change (Month): -8.8%
Year-over-Year DMI Change: +25.8%
YoY Commercial Change: +28.5% (-12.7% excluding data centers)
YoY Institutional Change: +19.6%
$100M+ Projects Entering Planning (February): 54
Largest Commercial Project: Amazon Data Center Campus, Hamlet, NC, 17 buildings at $500M each
Second Largest Commercial Project: Microsoft Data Center DSM50, Dallas, IA, 10 buildings at $250M each
Largest Institutional Projects: MCLJ Outpatient Pavilion, San Diego, CA ($245M); Orlando Health Viera Hospital Phase 1B, Viera West, FL ($183M); Bachelor Enlisted Quarters Renovation, Camp Pendleton North, San Diego, CA ($175M)
DMI Lead Time: 12 to 18 months ahead of nonresidential construction spending
TheJobWalk Thoughts
The DMI's 12-to-18-month lead window puts these data center entries squarely in the 2027 construction timeline. Subcontractors with data center experience in electrical, mechanical, and structural work should be moving on relationships now. By the time a project like Amazon's Hamlet campus hits the street for bids, the prequalification list is already set.
Most institutional categories softened this month, and those sectors run long procurement cycles. A slowdown in planning today means fewer opportunities to chase 12 months from now. That is not a crisis, but it is a signal to diversify your pipeline while backlog still supports it.
The broader commercial weakness outside data centers lines up with what a lot of GCs are already feeling on the ground. Owners are pausing. When macroeconomic uncertainty shows up in the DMI, it typically shows up in bid volume shortly after. Now is the time to tighten estimating capacity, protect margin, and know exactly where your next project is coming from.
