The Daily Dig
The Dodge Momentum Index fell 1.9% in June to 271.7, down from an upwardly revised May reading of 277.1. The pullback was driven almost entirely by slowing data center planning, which had been running at extraordinary levels in recent months. Commercial planning declined 6.8% over the month, while institutional planning momentum grew 10.9%.
Outside of data centers, the commercial side had a solid month. Planning activity improved for traditional office buildings, warehouses, retail stores and hotels.
On the institutional side, healthcare planning continued to accelerate in May, alongside recreational, government and religious building activity. Educational planning was the outlier, slowing for a second straight month.
The year-over-year numbers show a market expanding well beyond the data center boom. The DMI was up 21.8% compared to June 2025, with commercial and institutional segments each posting identical gains.
Strip data centers out of the commercial figures entirely, and that segment is still up 7.6% from a year ago. That points to real depth in the broader nonresidential pipeline, not just one hot sector carrying the index.
June also brought a heavy slate of large scale planning activity, with 59 projects valued at $100 million or more entering planning. The biggest commercial entries were the $500 million Stak Energy AI Data Center Campus in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, the $480 million Project Swan Data Center Complex in Lakeland, Florida, and the $456.8 million Parcel A Data Center in Manassas, Virginia.
On the institutional side, the largest projects were the $437 million DCSO Correctional Facility replacement in Nashville, the $320 million Cone Health Hospital in Winston-Salem, and the $303 million El Camino Health Hospital in Los Gatos, California.
Snapshot:
Index: Dodge Momentum Index (DMI)
June 2026 Reading: 271.7 (2000=100)
May 2026 Reading (revised): 277.1
Monthly Change: -1.9%
Year-over-Year Change: +21.8%
Commercial Planning (monthly): -6.8%
Institutional Planning (monthly): +10.9%
Commercial Planning (YoY): +21.8%
Institutional Planning (YoY): +21.8%
Commercial Planning ex-Data Centers (YoY): +7.6%
Large Projects Entering Planning (June): 59 projects valued at $100M+
Sectors with Improving Momentum: Office, warehouse, retail, hotel, healthcare, recreational, government, religious
Sector Slowing: Educational (second consecutive month)
Largest Commercial Projects:
Stak Energy AI Data Center Campus, Prudhoe Bay, AK: $500 million
Project Swan Data Center Complex, Lakeland, FL: $480 million
Parcel A Data Center, Manassas, VA: $456.8 million
Largest Institutional Projects:
DCSO Correctional Facility (Replacement), Nashville, TN: $437 million
Cone Health Hospital, Winston-Salem, NC: $320 million
El Camino Health Hospital, Los Gatos, CA: $303 million
TheJobWalk Thoughts
A 1.9% dip doesn't change the story. Data center planning simply cooled off record highs, while office, warehouse, retail and hotel planning all improved in the same month. Firms leaning entirely on hyperscale work should note that opportunity is broadening across commercial.
Institutional is the stronger near-term signal. A 10.9% monthly gain across healthcare, government, religious and recreational planning points to a deeper institutional pipeline, and this kind of work often moves on steadier timelines than private commercial projects, a good window for subs to reach owners' reps now.
The correctional and hospital projects on this list carry heavy MEP, security and life-safety scope. Subs with relevant healthcare, correctional, security, MEP, life-safety or state and local compliance experience should have an edge here. The 7.6% ex-data-center growth figure is also worth keeping in client conversations, since it backs up the case that this expansion runs deeper than one sector.
