The Daily Dig
Construction layoffs fell to 99,000 in August, the fewest in any month since the data series began in December 2000. That's according to an Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) analysis of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, released September 29.
Job openings dropped too, landing at 251,000 on the last day of the month.
Help Wanted, Slightly Less
Openings fell by 48,000 from the prior month. Compared with a year earlier, though, they're still up 38,000.
So openings have pulled back from recent months while staying above last year's level.
"The August JOLTS data indicate that both the demand for and supply of construction workers are decreasing," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "Job openings fell to the lowest level since March, while just 99,000 construction workers were laid off for the month, the fewest in any month since the start of this data series in December 2000."
Houses Down, Servers Up
Fewer openings and fewer layoffs in the same month can look like a contradiction. According to Basu, the explanation comes down to which parts of the industry are busy.
"These dynamics may seem contradictory but are consistent with ongoing weakness in the residential segment coupled with booming data center activity and the resulting scarcity of certain skilled trades workers," he said.
Nonresidential contractors, on net, expect to add staff over the next six months, according to ABC's Construction Confidence Index.
Those shortages come with a bill. Basu said nonresidential contractors "will likely experience faster labor cost escalation due to these shortages in certain occupational categories like electricians and HVAC workers."
Snapshot:
Report: ABC analysis of BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
Release Date: September 29
Data Period: August
Job Openings: 251,000 (last day of August)
Change From Prior Month: Down 48,000
Change From a Year Earlier: Up 38,000
Openings Level: Lowest since March
Layoffs: 99,000
Layoff Benchmark: Fewest in any month since series began in December 2000
JOLTS Job Opening Definition: Unfilled position an employer is actively recruiting for
Market Drivers Cited: Residential weakness, data center activity
Trades Facing Shortages: Electricians, HVAC workers
Contractor Outlook: Nonresidential contractors, on net, expect staffing increases over the next six months (ABC Construction Confidence Index)
Source: Associated Builders and Contractors
Commentary: Anirban Basu, ABC Chief Economist
TheJobWalk Thoughts
Read these numbers as two labor markets, not one. Residential weakness and data center demand are pulling in opposite directions, and Basu singles out the trades feeling the squeeze. If your shop employs electricians or HVAC workers, you likely hold pricing leverage and a crew worth protecting.
GCs on nonresidential work should treat MEP labor as a schedule risk, not just a cost line. Lock in those subcontractor commitments early and push for escalation language on longer jobs. A labor overrun is a much harder conversation after the contract is signed.
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