The Daily Dig
The Dodge Momentum Index fell 9.0% in October to 260.4 (2000=100). That’s down from a revised September reading of 286.0, according to numbers Dodge Construction Network released on November 6, 2026. Commercial planning took the biggest hit.
Cooling Off
Commercial planning dropped 13.4% on the month, led by weaker data center and warehouse activity. Parking garages, office buildings and hotels also slowed.
Retail stores were the only commercial sector that grew in October.
“Institutional planning edged lower but remained resilient, supporting the Index in October,” said Sarah Martin, Director of Economic Research at Dodge Construction Network. “The commercial sector accounted for the large decline, driven by weaker data center and warehouse planning. Some volatility is to be expected, as data center activity fluctuates considerably from month to month, while mounting macroeconomic pressures continue to constrain other commercial sectors.”
Institutional planning slipped just 1.5%. Education and religious buildings softened, but healthcare, public government and recreational planning all picked up.
Compared with October 2025, the full index was down 2.4%. Commercial fell 17.6% over the same stretch, while institutional climbed 33.4%.
Taking data centers out of the picture doesn’t change much. Commercial would still be down 16.6% from a year ago, given the surge in activity in late 2025.
Big Tickets
October brought 23 projects valued at $100 million or more into planning.
The three largest commercial projects were all data centers:
$451 million Orchard Hills Data Center Campus (564 MW) in Cheyenne, Wyoming
$368 million Centra Technology Data Center (Phase 1) in Des Moines, Iowa
$366 million Project Longhorn Data Center (Building 1) in Cedar Creek, Texas
The three largest institutional projects:
$336 million Green Valley Medical Campus in Fairfield, California
$257 million Atrium Health Acute Care Building in Cornelius, North Carolina
$200 million life science laboratory in San Diego, California
Snapshot:
Report: Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), October 2026
Publisher: Dodge Construction Network
Release Date: November 6, 2026
Dateline: Boston, MA
Methodology: Three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects entering planning
Lead Time: Shown to lead nonresidential construction spending by a year to 18 months
October Reading: 260.4 (2000=100)
September Reading (revised): 286.0
Monthly Change: Down 9.0%
Commercial Planning (month): Down 13.4%
Institutional Planning (month): Down 1.5%
DMI Year Over Year: Down 2.4% vs. October 2025
Commercial Year Over Year: Down 17.6%
Commercial Year Over Year (excluding data centers): Down 16.6%
Institutional Year Over Year: Up 33.4%
Weaker Commercial Sectors: Data centers, warehouses, parking garages, office buildings, hotels
Growing Commercial Sector: Retail stores
Weaker Institutional Sectors: Education, religious buildings
Accelerating Institutional Sectors: Healthcare, public government, recreational
Projects $100 Million or More Entering Planning: 23
Top Commercial Projects:
Orchard Hills Data Center Campus, Cheyenne, WY ($451 million, 564 MW)
Centra Technology Data Center Phase 1, Des Moines, IA ($368 million)
Project Longhorn Data Center Building 1, Cedar Creek, TX ($366 million)
Top Institutional Projects:
Green Valley Medical Campus, Fairfield, CA ($336 million)
Atrium Health Acute Care Building, Cornelius, NC ($257 million)
Life science laboratory, San Diego, CA ($200 million)
Quoted: Sarah Martin, Director of Economic Research, Dodge Construction Network
TheJobWalk Thoughts
The DMI has been shown to lead spending by a year to 18 months. That makes October’s dip a signal for late 2027 and early 2028, not a start date for any job. The bigger concern is how broad the commercial slowdown is. It’s down 17.6% from a year ago, and pulling out data centers only trims that to 16.6%.
Institutional is holding the index up, and healthcare gained ground in October. For MEP subcontractors, that’s worth a look. Healthcare and data center work both carry heavy mechanical and electrical scope, so the experience carries over, even if hospitals bring their own requirements.
